It looks like a two-horse race after Friday with a $15 million prize dangling in front of the winner
By Kyle Porter
• 1 min read
There is no cut at the 2021 Tour Championship, but most of the 30-man field as of Friday evening cannot feel good about winning this tournament come Sunday. That's because Patrick Cantlay (-17) and Jon Rahm (-16) are both at least five clear of third place and have doubled up those that are T10 after Round 2.
Cantlay leads Erik van Rooyen and Joaquin Niemann (who are T29) by 18 strokes after two rounds. Rahm and Cantlay shot a combined 9 under on Friday as they played in the final pairing at East Lake Golf Club, which is where they'll be again on Saturday when the third round starts. And while the players just beyond them are as elite as chasers get, the distance after 36 holes -- on a course where shooting 65 is heroic -- is a problem.
We'll take a closer look at their rounds as well as everyone just behind them as the last event of the 2020-21 season heads to Moving Day.
1. Patrick Cantlay (-17): Maintaining a lead like this, even from the pole position, is not as easy as Cantlay has made it look. His game is so well-rounded, and that has shown out over the last two weeks. After he set the all-time strokes-gained record in a single tournament with his putter at the BMW Championship last weekend, he's doing it with his tee-to-green game this week. Cantlay (2.93 strokes gained per round) is more than a stroke per round up on the second-best hitter in the field, who happens to be Rahm. Cantlay has one bogey through 36 holes and made just three putts longer than 5 feet on Friday en route to his 66 and the outright lead. Cantlay might not win, but he'll be tough to unseat from the top spot over the next 36 holes. He's currently a +150 favorite to take home the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup on Sunday, according to Caesars Sportsbook.
2. Jon Rahm (-16): After starting at 6 under, the best player in the world dropped back-to-back 65s at East Lake and is the even-odds favorite to add his name to the list of FedEx Cup winners. One of his colleagues, Rory McIlroy (who is currently T10 and eight back of him), alluded to Rahm's dominance after his round on Friday.
"He's so consistent as well," said McIlroy. "He's had like 14 top 10s, and he's just been, basically anytime he's teed it up, he's been there. So, yeah, he said it earlier in the week. He's the best player in the world and he's shown that for basically all year."
The best player in the world needs more than one win this season, and this one would be a fitting way for him to close out one of the most dominant statistical seasons in recent memory. One thing to keep in mind, however, is that Rahm has been in this position in each of the last two events and eventually faded on the weekend. I don't think that happens again, but it's at least in play right now.
3. Bryson DeChambeau (-11): DeChambeau is unsurprisingly leading the field off the tee and perhaps surprisingly 21st (of 30) on his approach shots. He hit some fairly wild drives and made back-to-back bogeys to fall out of a bit halfway through his second nine. However, a chip-in birdie on No. 17 and a 9-foot birdie at the last hole have him still within striking distance with a ton of time left to make up ground. He's maybe the player I'm most intrigued by over the next two days because of how high the ceiling is and how low the floor seems to be.
4. Justin Thomas (-10): It could have been better. J.T. ran it all the way to 12 under through the tough 15th hole but made two bogeys in his last three to fall behind DeChambeau, who he would have played with regardless. Still, he's in a good spot, and he's doing what he does best (sticking approach shots and making putts). I'm extremely intrigued by the 20-1 number he's on going into Round 3, mostly because of how good he's been on this course. His pairing with DeChambeau will be must-see on Saturday.
T5. Viktor Hovland, Harris English, Cameron Smith, Kevin Na, Tony Finau (-9): This is an interesting crew, but I lean toward Hovland and English (both of whom were under par in Round 2) because they're hitting it the best and putting it the worst. Both are ahead of Cantlay in strokes gained approach this week. (Cantlay is third in the field.) English in particular just hasn't made much at all despite being a good putter. It honestly might be too late given the quality of players in front of them, but if either can keep the tee-to-green game going and get hot with the putter, they have a chance.
T10. Rory McIlroy, Louis Oosthuizen, Jordan Spieth (-8): I list these at T10 only to congratulate Spieth, who announced on Friday that he and his wife, Annie, are expecting their first baby in November. "It's old news for me, but yeah, eventually Annie was going to show around and people were going to know," said Spieth. "But we weren't like hiding or anything like that, it was just more private life. But yeah, very excited. She feels great, that's the number one priority and everything's going smoothly."
Rick Gehman and Jonathan Coachman break down and react to Friday's second round action at the TOUR Championship. Follow & listen to The First Cut onApple PodcastsandSpotify.
